What could have happened to Air Algerie’s flight from Ouagadougou to Algiers? Here are five possible scenarios.
1. Plane ran out of fuel – being reported by some Algerian media. In my opinion unlikely. At only 50 minutes into a four-hour flight, this would be a dramatic miscalculation.
2. Shot down by rebels. Possible, but still in the unlikely category. The Federal Aviation Administration issued this yesterday: “The US agency banned all flights into the territory and airspace of Mali saying the security situation remains fragile.”
3. Hijacked. Air Algerie flights have been hijacked on at least six occasions I can find, but there have been no reports of demands being made before the plane crashed.
4. Weather. A source tells me that air traffic control asked the aircraft to divert near the Algerian border because of bad weather and to avoid another aircraft. It is now clear that there was a storm over Mali but I assume it did not collide with the other aircraft otherwise we would have reports of a secondmissing plane.
5. CCTV reporting it came down in Niger. This would have meant a considerable diversion to the east.