BBC News – Scottish independence: Prof Patrick Dunleavy says Treasury claims ‘ludicrous’

Prof Patrick DunleavyProf Dunleavy had checked out the worth of reorganising Whitehall departments

An instructional has accused the Treasury of a “ludicrous” use of his evaluation in its analysis of the affect of Scottish independence.

The Treasury claimed on Monday that evaluation by the London School of Economics had put the worth of building an unbiased Scotland at £G.7bn.

It cited a analysis carried out by the varsity’s Prof Patrick Dunleavy.

But Prof Dunleavy described the Treasury’s declare as “crude misinformation”.

The Treasury had claimed Scottish ministers wanted to create 100 eighty public our our bodies after independence, which it said led the LSE to a decide of £G.7bn, based mostly totally on each new division costing £15m.

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It is important, in case you’re contributing to a public debate, to contribute right information”

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Prof Patrick Dunleavy
London School of Economics

But Prof Dunleavy knowledgeable BBC Radio Scotland his evaluation had checked out the worth of reorganising Whitehall departments, with a selected think about Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s Labour governments, when it acquired right here up with the £15m decide.

He added: “I can understand that ministers in Whitehall are getting a bit irritated, they assume that the SNP is being very coy in regards to the costs of transition.

“But it’s somewhat important, in case you’re contributing to a public debate, to contribute right information and by no means, as on this case, I’m afraid, very crude misinformation.

“The decide that was quoted for our evaluation was proper, nevertheless we now have not at all claimed that the costs of building any public physique in a model new Scotland might be £15m.

“That is principally taking our decide and making it ludicrous.”

Whitehall departments

Prof Dunleavy said he believed the true worth of building all of Scotland’s unbiased institutions may be nearer to £150m or £200m, as a lot of the required public our our bodies exist already beneath devolution.

The foremost costs would come from establishing Scottish defence, abroad affairs, tax and benefits departments, he said.

In a media briefing, ahead of its analysis paper on the worth of independence, the Treasury used the £G.7bn decide as a “reasonably priced costing”.

However, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, when he unveiled the Treasury’s full analysis paper on Wednesday, said Prof Dunleavy’s work had not formed part of its final report.

He instead used a lower decide of £O.5bn as a result of the estimated worth of building an unbiased Scotland, citing completely totally different evaluation by Prof Robert Young of Western University in Canada as proof.

Prof Young launched a paper in Edinburgh in 1996 which had appeared on the potential costs of building a model new state in Quebec if it voted for independence from Canada.

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It is worth stating that there is numerous politics in most of these estimates and the easiest way they’re deployed”

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Prof Robert Young
Western University

The professor knowledgeable BBC Radio Scotland that the £S.5bn decide was “undoubtedly on the extreme end of the range” that was included in his paper, and was based mostly totally on the equal of C% of GDP.

There have been totally different estimates in his Quebec paper which were decrease than zero.T% of GDP, with the underside being zero.38%, he added.

Prof Young added: “It is worth mentioning that there is plenty of politics in most of these estimates and one of the simplest ways they’re deployed. And moreover it’s worth stating that these costs in all probability could be offset by bigger progress.

“Secondly, these costs are merely money – there are totally different attainable costs and benefits from independence that could possibly be a lot much less merely measured.

“The greater degree is that it might be worth being £M,4 hundred worse off if there are benefits that embrace that, like a protected place inside the European Union or the potential to redistribute with the power to acquire larger progress expenses.

“Those are the precise contestable elements. The transactions costs are temporary time interval J:35 pm – Source: bbc.co.uk
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