Morning Agenda: After Trump’s Election, What Next?


President-elect Donald J. Trump at an election night event in New York on Tuesday.

Damon Winter/The New York Times

After shaking off the shock of Donald J. Trump’s victory yesterday, markets have been recovering lost ground.

Investors bet on Mr. Trump’s promises to increase government spending, cut taxes and ease financial regulations, and major markets ended Wednesday in the United States up more than 1 percent. That continued during Asian trading on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 closing more than 6 percent higher.

The Mexican peso, however, did not fare so well. After plunging more than 12 percent against the dollar, it pared some losses, but has not fully recovered.

Many are still reeling from the result, from America’s political establishment to the thousands who protested overnight at several cities across the United States.

What next? Let’s take a look:

Business Regulations

Many expect Mr. Trump to seek significant cuts to regulation in the banking, health care and energy industries.

He has taken an old-school Republican stance toward reducing regulation, but it is unclear exactly how this would manifest itself. He has said he would roll back Dodd-Frank, but his platform also calls for breaking up the big banks.


Mr. Trump has said he would seek to block AT&T’s $85.4 billion bid for Time Warner because it was an example of “the power structure I’m fighting.”

But antitrust specialists and Republican strategists are not convinced that his administration could actually fulfill promises of tougher antitrust regulation.

Mr. Trump could appoint officials who are more receptive to mergers than a Democratic administration, but the outlook is hazy.

Hedge Funds

Uncertainty still reigns because it is unclear how Mr. Trump will lead.

Sahm Adrangi, a hedge fund manager from Canada, said Mr. Trump did not win votes because of a specific policy position. “He got voted in on his personality,” he said.

Silicon Valley

“I’m heartbroken,” said Stewart Butterfield, who helped found Slack. Many others in the industry felt similarly devastated. And they could be in for a few tough years.

Mr. Trump had few kind words for tech giants during the campaign, promising to initiate antitrust actions against Amazon and vowing to force Apple to make its products in the United States.

Peter Thiel, however, is sitting pretty, having supported the Trump campaign. He says he is not moving to Washington, but he will “try to help the president in any way I can.”


The United States economy depends on access to a global supply chain — disruption could cost American householders — and tariffs on China might provoke a trade war that could slow economic growth.

But Mr. Trump was helped on his way to the White House by people lamenting that they have been left behind by globalization.

He will have to find a way to make capitalism a more enriching proposition for these people, or risk another wave of anger.

Interest Rates and Inflation

If you read the signs in bond markets, these will be higher. The interest rate on 10-year Treasuries has soared and bond market data tells us that consumer prices are set to rise.

If Mr. Trump’s proposals for tax cuts and huge amounts of infrastructure spending do create stronger growth, that will translate into higher prices, particularly if the country is near its economic potential.

Officials appointed by Mr. Trump are likely to urge the Federal Reserve to focus on fighting inflation, meaning they would probably favor raising rates more quickly.

Analysts already expect that the promises to stimulate growth will keep the Fed on track to raising its benchmark interest rate in December.


Mr. Trump did not say much about white-collar crime apart from hitting out at Wall Street greed.

It is likely to be business as usual in the short term, Peter J. Henning writes. If budget cuts hit the Justice Department, white-collar investigations might be starved of funds. Enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act is likely to thrive though.

The Securities and Exchange Commission might find itself on the defensive with cuts to its enforcement program, and having to fend off efforts to rein in its authority.

Your Money

What about your personal investments? Should you move your retirement savings?

Stop and breath, Ron Lieber writes. People often regret making big financial decisions hastily. And, as we have noted, there are a number of things to consider.

Coming Up

• Business, technology and policy leaders will discuss “Playing for the Long Term” at the DealBook Conference.

• Disney faces a tricky earnings call. Analysts are expecting an unusually weak quarter and investors are concerned that the decline in ESPN subscribers could be accelerating, after a spat between ESPN and Nielsen over data showing 621,000 subscribers lost in a month.

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10 November 2016 | 10:58 am – Source:


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